The ambitious peace initiative spearheaded by President Donald Trump for the troubled Gaza Strip finds itself deeply mired in the quagmire of local political intransigence and the unresolved fate of a single missing Israeli hostage. Two months after the imposition of an American-brokered ceasefire, the densely populated Palestinian territory remains locked in the precarious first phase of the deal, its landscape a tableau of division, displacement, and debris, even as a harsh winter storm compounds the humanitarian crisis.
In Gaza City, the stark reality of the standstill is palpable for families like Ghadir al-Adham’s. Sheltering in a leaky tent with her husband and six children, they face daily hardship while awaiting the long-promised reconstruction. "Here we are, living a life of humiliation," she recounted to the BBC, her frustration echoing the despair of countless others. "We want caravans. We want our homes rebuilt. We long for concrete to keep us warm. Every day I sit and cry for my children." The devastating combination of torrential rain and a powerful winter storm has inundated makeshift camps and triggered building collapses, placing over 800,000 Gazans at critical risk of flooding, according to United Nations warnings.
The Ran Gvili Sticking Point: A Single Hostage, a National Standoff
The crucial transition to the second, more intricate stage of the US President's peace plan—which includes provisions for new housing and a new administrative structure for Gaza—is currently paralyzed by the continuing search for Ran Gvili, the last unaccounted-for Israeli hostage. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has emphatically conditioned any forward movement on the complete return of all Israeli captives, both the living and the deceased.
Gvili, a police officer who was captured during the 7 October Hamas attacks while defending Kibbutz Alumim, was officially declared dead last year. Despite intensive searches through Gaza's wreckage, his remains have not been located. His parents, Talik and Itzik, whose home in Meitar is adorned with banners and yellow remembrance flags for the hostages, express a deep, anguished conviction that Hamas is deliberately withholding their son’s body. "They stole our kid, they stole him," his mother lamented. His father asserted, "They know where he is... They just try to hide or keep him. They're play[ing] with us." They suspect Hamas is leveraging their son as a crucial bargaining chip—an "insurance policy"—for future negotiations, having already released the other hostages. Hamas, in turn, has refuted these accusations to the BBC, claiming that Israel is instead attempting to circumvent the implementation of the agreed-upon deal.
Under mounting pressure from Washington, and with no progress on finding Ran’s body, his parents are adamant that Israel's leadership must hold the line. Talik confirmed the gravity of the official commitment: "Everyone in Israel['s] government says to us, 'No, we don't move to the second level until Ran comes back.' This is their promise." For Netanyahu, moving ahead with the deal’s next steps, which include a further withdrawal of Israeli forces towards Gaza's perimeter, is widely considered a political impossibility while even a single hostage remains missing.
Hesitation and the Looming Risk of Lost Opportunity
The ensuing stages of the peace agreement mandate exceptionally difficult concessions from both sides. Hamas must relinquish its weapons and its control over the territory, while Israel must transfer security responsibilities to an international stabilization force.
Retired General Israel Ziv, the former head of Israel's military Operations Directorate, suggests this shared reluctance is the primary cause of the delay. "Israel and Hamas are sharing the same interests not to move so fast into the second stage," he observed. He elaborated that Hamas fears losing power, while the Israeli government, for internal political reasons, prefers to maintain a presence in Gaza, avoiding the need to justify a withdrawal to its conservative base.
General Ziv believes that only a strong push from President Trump can break the impasse, and warns that time is a critical factor. "By waiting I think we might miss the opportunity because Hamas is reorganizing and [its] strength is coming back," he explained, urging both sides to "take a deep breath and go forward with that plan, because staying in the situation as it is, it's the worst-case scenario."
The initial and most formidable obstacle remains the agreed-upon disarmament of Hamas in a manner acceptable to all parties. Without this assurance, foreign nations are highly unlikely to deploy troops to secure the Strip, and consequently, reconstruction in Hamas-controlled areas will not commence. Prime Minister Netanyahu recently expressed skepticism about the efficacy of a foreign stabilization force, stating, "Our friends in America want to try to establish an international force that will do the job... I don't want to go into detail, they can't do everything, and maybe they can't do the main thing, but we'll see."
A Determined US Push and the Specter of Further Division
Gaza is currently bisected by the "yellow line," marking the operational limit of Israeli forces under the ceasefire. This demarcation was recently referred to as a "new border line" by Israel's military chief of staff, fueling speculation about Israel's long-term territorial intentions.
Key unresolved matters, including the modalities for disarming Hamas, are slated for discussion between Netanyahu and Trump during a meeting in Florida later this month. The US President, who successfully brokered the ceasefire and ushered his peace plan through the UN Security Council, has been vocal about his determination to accelerate the process. He recently announced plans to name the members of a newly created "Board of Peace for Gaza" early next year, declaring it would be "one of the most legendary boards ever."
Meanwhile, reports suggest that, under considerable US pressure, Israel has begun clearing rubble in the south of the Strip near Rafah in preparation for a new temporary housing project within Israeli-held territory. This proposed shelter is designed to house tens of thousands of Gazans, contingent upon their willingness to submit to security checks for any ties to Hamas. This move is seen by some observers as an effort to isolate Hamas by drawing the civilian population into Israeli-controlled zones.
Though a small number of Gazans have already moved to camps established by Israeli-supported armed groups, many others, even those critical of Hamas, have voiced their refusal to live under Israeli administration. Should the second stage of Trump's plan ultimately collapse, this emerging situation offers a grim preview: a divided Gaza risks becoming a yet more deeply fractured entity.
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