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🤝 Bilateral Gains and Diplomatic Nuance: An Assessment of the Outcomes from the Putin-Modi Conclave in Delhi


The President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, is scheduled to conclude a densely packed day of official engagements in the Republic of India at the very location where his state visit commenced: with a ceremonial state banquet hosted at the President's House, the site where he earlier received a formal guard of honor during the morning reception.

Interspersed throughout the day, the Russian leader participated in extensive discussions with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, formally attended a high-level bilateral business forum, and officially announced the forthcoming launch of Russia Today, a state-controlled television network funded by the Kremlin.

The Russian leader has endured a considerable degree of international diplomatic isolation since the commencement of the large-scale military conflict in Ukraine in 2022. Consequently, the meticulous and elaborate red carpet reception afforded by Delhi transmits a potent, unmistakable message to Western governments regarding Russia’s enduring alliances.

However, the crucial analytical question remains: What specific, tangible benefits were accrued by both Delhi and Moscow from this high-stakes official visit? The following constitutes our expert assessment:

A Triumphant Reception and Substantive, Albeit Limited, Accords

Firstly, concerning the grand diplomatic welcome extended to President Vladimir Putin, the internal Russian reaction has been unequivocally one of triumph.

"A cavalcade, volleys of ceremonial cannons, and a marble throne room," exulted the ultra-pro-Kremlin news publication Komsomolskaya Pravda on Friday. "How Vladimir Putin was greeted in an Indian palace with 340 rooms."

This lavish reception serves as a categorical counter-narrative to Western efforts aimed at effectively transforming President Putin into a global pariah following the full-scale invasion of Ukrainian territory.

In terms of the concrete commercial and strategic accords concluded, the number is arguably fewer than the palatial rooms, yet sufficient for both Russia and India to publicly trumpet the strength of their "special and privileged strategic partnership" and for President Putin to formally commend the vigorous efforts directed toward expanding bilateral cooperation.

Agreements of note include:

  • The implementation of a new comprehensive Russia-India economic cooperation program.

  • A crucial accord concerning critical minerals and the security of associated supply chains.

  • Advancements in the pharmaceuticals sector, specifically the planned establishment of a joint Russian-Indian pharmaceutical manufacturing facility in Russia's Kaluga region.

Navigating the Most Politically Sensitive Issues

The outcome concerning the two most ardently discussed—and politically sensitive—subjects warrants particular scrutiny:

1. Crude Oil Procurement: India has been a massive purchaser of Russian oil, and these sustained acquisitions have provided critical economic support for Russia's sanctions-afflicted economy, much to the pronounced annoyance of the United States. Washington explicitly accuses India of aiding in the financial sustenance of the Kremlin's war reserves. Consequently, the Trump administration has been exerting intensive pressure on Delhi, utilizing the imposition of heavy tariffs on Indian goods as leverage to compel a cessation of Russian energy purchases.

On Friday, Putin underscored Moscow's unwavering readiness to ensure the uninterrupted provisioning of oil supplies to India. Crucially, however, no specific details regarding volumes or pricing mechanisms were publicly articulated. The prevailing impression is that the diplomatic initiative rests now with India to judiciously determine its subsequent purchasing strategy.

2. Weapons Sales and Defense Systems: In the lead-up to Putin's visit, there was considerable speculation: Would India proceed with the purchase of state-of-the-art Russian fighter jets and advanced air defense systems?

Remarkably, no major defense procurement deal was officially announced. This conspicuous absence may be interpreted as a tangible manifestation of the delicate balancing act that India is compelled to perform—calibrating its time-tested strategic relationship with Moscow against the contemporaneous necessity of maintaining ties with Washington.

While public attention was predominantly fixated upon the elaborate pomp, ceremony, palatial settings, and announced agreements, the true significance of the discussions may have transpired in a less visible setting. The "informal dinner" between President Putin and Prime Minister Modi, described by Russians as an "informal dinner," is considered crucial.

According to Yuri Ushakov, Putin's foreign policy aide, this intimate engagement constituted "one of the key points of the visit." Ushakov elaborated to the Russian government newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta that "during such confidential face-to-face contacts, the most urgent, most sensitive and most important issues of both bilateral relations and the international situation are discussed. Politics is made at these kind of meetings."

The Economic Imperative: Trade as the Central Organizing Principle

Vikas Pandey asserts that the visit was characterized by elevated optics, beginning with the renowned Modi embrace extended to Putin at the airport. The fact that the Indian Prime Minister personally received the global leader at the airport is an uncommon gesture, powerfully demonstrating the immense value Modi assigns to India's time-tested strategic partnership with Russia, as well as his discernible personal bonhomie with Putin.

However, the palpable pomp and show of the elaborate ceremonies did not ultimately culminate in the finalization of blockbuster agreements. Specifically absent was any major defence procurement deal, or a decisive agreement guaranteeing India's ability to sustain its imports of discounted Russian crude.

Subsequent to the ceremonial proceedings, the leaders delivered their formal remarks. The addresses were defined, firstly, by a conspicuous display of profound mutual deference, and secondly, by the absence of any monumental announcement.

What became unequivocally evident from their formal pronouncements, however, was that trade constituted the absolute epicenter of this official visit.

Russia is currently enduring the severe consequences of comprehensive Western sanctions, while India is simultaneously confronting burdensome $50\%$ tariffs levied by Washington. Both nations, therefore, share a pressing strategic necessity to secure alternative markets to bolster their respective economies. Both parties perceive the other as a significant commercial opportunity, and there appears to be a shared intellectual acknowledgment that their economic partnership has been underperforming for a duration spanning decades.

The current bilateral trade volume, recorded at $68.72 \text{ billion}$, represents a massive increase from $8.1 \text{ billion}$ in 2020, but this growth has been overwhelmingly reliant upon India's sustained purchase of discounted Russian oil.

Russia undoubtedly desires the perpetuation of this arrangement. When Putin stated that Moscow was prepared to continue "uninterrupted shipments" of fuel, this constituted a subtly articulated, yet unequivocal, nudge to Modi and India to resist the demands emanating from the White House.

India is currently under significant duress from the Trump administration to discontinue the procurement of oil from Russia. The diplomatic challenge for Modi is now to manage the virtually impossible task of simultaneously continuing discounted oil imports from Russia and successfully concluding a major trade accord with Trump.

Beyond the established sectors of defence and oil, the two nations formally announced numerous agreements across a broader spectrum of industries. Deals and Memoranda of Understanding were formalized in areas including: shipbuilding, the specialized training of Indian seafarers for operations in polar waters, strategic investments in new shipping lanes, civil nuclear energy, visa-free travel, and the aforementioned critical minerals.

Modi placed considerable emphasis on the crucial necessity of elevating bilateral business ties, a reflection of India's inherent quest to diversify and discover newer export markets. He also highlighted the positive progress achieved toward the conclusion of India's potential free trade agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), which comprises Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. This impending agreement, once finalized, will enable Russia, India, and the other member states to extensively explore each other's domestic markets.

The leaders also affirmed their commitment to a new five-year economic framework designed to enable the two countries to attain an ambitious bilateral trade target of $100 \text{ billion}$. This objective is particularly ambitious if discounted oil is removed from the equation, a potential contingency that likely motivated the intensified emphasis placed upon boosting bilateral trade across various supplementary sectors.

Finally, the absence of a large-scale, headline-generating defence deal does not diminish Russia’s continuous and profound role within the Indian armed forces. Moscow will assuredly persist as the most critically important player for India’s defence requirements, a status it has maintained for decades.

It is particularly noteworthy that India offered very little public disclosure regarding its intention to acquire the advanced Su-57 fifth-generation fighter aircraft, which is essential for bridging critical capability gaps in its air force. What India may have urgently demanded from Moscow, however, were guarantees concerning the timely delivery of existing defence orders. The delivery of the remaining units of the current order for the S-400 air defence system is reportedly subject to significant delays.

However, such guarantees might prove difficult for Russia to conclusively promise, given the vast consumption of its defence industrial resources necessitated by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

This does not preclude the possibility that negotiations concerning the fighter jet or other major defence contracts are actively continuing in the background. It is simply the pervasive consensus that this particular diplomatic engagement was overwhelmingly centered on the strategic and tactical exigencies of trade expansion.

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